One of the most problematic problems in economics is the reference to the “Impossible Trinity”, which means that only two out of three choices may be applicable. These options are called: fixed exchange rate, free capital mobility and independent monetary policy, as we show in the figure above. This is; You are less likely to have 3 options at once. A country can apply a fixed exchange rate which automatically allows capital flows due to the open economy and therefore a country cannot maintain an independent monetary policy. Helene Rey states that the only way to provide an independent monetary policy is to have free capital flows, which leads to having a floating exchange rate. According to Helene Rey ''the global financial cycle transforms the trilemma into a dilemma''. The targeted capital controls, the sources of the financial cycle itself by the monetary policy of the Fed and other major central banks, the transmission channel by limiting credit growth and leverage, the transmission channel by imposing stricter limits on leverage financial for all financial intermediaries are the most significant solution to this problem. global financial cycle or “dilemma”. Since the financial cycle is globalized, capital flows, asset prices and credit growth take part in this cycle. Furthermore; this cycle is based on some indicators but before explaining this part, I want to say that the VIX is an indicator of uncertainty and risk aversion in the markets because the financial cycle is directly and positively related to the VIX. Generally; VIX, foreign direct investment and other types of flows have a highly correlated relationship. Capital flows are also positively correlated to the VIX. Also; we can see that the portfolio debt increases while the credit inflow also increases.??? Credit flows are…half of the paper…which is supported by the data in the article. In my opinion; if I think about which is more realistic, it is clear that the ''Dilemma'' has validity in today's world. In our world; The trilemma cannot be effectively supported in the real world for some reasons: since the central country determines the monetary policy and therefore other countries follow the policy of the central country. Countries must adjust their monetary policies, putting countries like the United States at the center. Furthermore ; Capital controls are challenging in today's world and can create many more distortions. Therefore; I disagree with Trilemma in History regarding these ideas. The dilemma framework is more appropriate to today's world because the United States provides monetary independence and shapes the world's monetary approach. Under these conditions, “Dilemma” is the most sustainable approach in the current era.
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