Predictive Policy: Smart or Scary? I consider myself very lucky to have one of the most rewarding jobs in the world: predicting the future. I don't have a crystal ball or hear spirits speaking to me. Instead, I use data from crimes that occurred in the past, to try to determine when the perpetrators will strike again. It's far from perfect, but the methods are effective. I chose to pursue a degree in Computer Science so that I could develop better analytical tools to assist me and others like me in our efforts to keep people safe. You may never have heard of the existence of a job like mine, but you may have heard of a controversial tool used by many police departments around the world, called “predictive policing.” I chose this topic because it is relevant to both my chosen career and my major. Since the development of the modern police force in the 1820s, administrators have been constantly searching for better ways to solve crimes and prevent the commission of new crimes. With the advent of affordable desktop computers in the 1980s, the field of criminal analysis emerged to track patterns, trends, and patterns of criminal activity using maps and mathematics. Today, the technology exists to make predictions about future criminal activity based on historical, geographic, and sociological data in a variety of ways, all referred to as predictive policing. The term “predictive policing” can be a little intimidating at first, inspiring disturbing visions of people being arrested for crimes they haven’t yet committed, much like the concept of “precrime” established in Philip K. Dick’s Minority Report. In reality, a basic predictive policing system is created by combining several analysis methods that have… halfway through the paper… the work has been completed and it turns out that a new bar has recently opened within a quarter mile from the train station and the police intervened several times for unruly patrons. The bar is discovered to have multiple health code violations and is shut down, and the batteries at the train station cease immediately. This is an example of Risk Terrain Modeling, which considers the geographic composition of an area to calculate the risk of future criminal acts (“Overview,” n.d., para. 2). By combining hot spots, repeat victimization and Risk Terrain Modeling, predictive policing provides law enforcement with the tools to better prevent future crimes from occurring. Predictive policing is not something to fear, but to embrace, as it uses proven analytical methods, increases police effectiveness, and makes the most efficient use of public taxpayer dollars.
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